Which Science Relies Most on Conjecture?

What a complicated question!

My two cents?

Jacob Bernoulli’s, Ars Conjectandi (The Art of Conjecture), published in 1713, is the first book to be published on what has come to be called, statistics. And anytime science treats statistics as science, it is doing something Bernoulli warned against. Here, Bernoulli is the man who invented statistics (stochastically inferring data). But in his book, he warns against equating stochastically acquired information to actual scientific data. Hence his title; the Art of Conjecture, rather than the art of Discovering Scientific Truth.

My point? Any time science relies on statistics, it’s straying into the realm of serious conjecture.